RJO FuturesCast

Daily Futures Market News, Commentary, & Insight

Bull and Bear Market

More China news over the weekend – Trump moved the goal posts on the March 1stdeadline in tariffs.  Chinese equities roared +5.5% overnight, cutting into the y/y decline and bringing it to -17% y/y.  U.S. GDP is released on Thursday – our research team is forecasting 1.69% Q/Q for Q4 2018.  Q1 2019 is being forecast at 1.7%.  So, if you’re still looking for a catalyst to the 20% decline in Q4, look no further than the cycle. 

You got to hand it to President Trump puppeteering the Federal Reserve and OPEC.  Trump was out this morning chirping OPEC on Twitter about Oil prices getting too expensive.  Oil immediately dropped following the tweet and sits down -2% on the day.  Good.  With our inflation accelerating call in Q2 this may give us some more attractive levels to position long of Oil – 55.40 is our bull/bear line with our immediate term range rising to 54.67-57.98. 

Side Note: U.S. Equities are signaling extreme exhaustion at present levels but with VIX sub 15 for now the 5th day in a row is not a good look.  Headed into GDP on Thursday will likely provide a set back for stocks but if the S&P 500 can sustain north of 2818 we’ll have to review our technical outlook as we approach the bull/bear line for equities.  Immediate term downside to 2686 with upside to 2813 = HEAVY

Good Luck!

Actionable Levels: 

Market

Trend

Range Low

Range High

 

 

 

 

SP500

Bearish

2686

2813

Nasdaq Comp

Neutral

7256

7626

10yr Yield

Bearish

2.60%

2.71%

VIX

Bullish

13.11

18.65

Oil

Neutral

54.67

57.98

Nat Gas

Bearish

262

293

Gold

Bullish

1318

1352

USD (Cash)

Neutral

95.92

97.25

EUR/USD

Bearish

1.11

1.14

USD/JPY

Bearish

1.0925

1.111

 

Feel free to reach out to John Caruso at jcaruso@rjofutures.com or 1-800-669-5354 if you’d like to get a 2 month free trial of our proprietary trade recommendations by email. 

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John Caruso

Senior Market Strategist
Follow John on Twitter @JCarusoRJO. John began his career at Wilshire Quinn Capital, a Wealth Management Firm based out of Los Angeles, California. John made his move to the commodity industry at the end of 2005, and began his path at Lind Waldock, at the time the largest retail brokerage division worldwide. John did his undergraduate work at Robert Morris University in Pennsylvania from 1999-2003, where he was a 4 year varsity basketball letterman.  A self-professed “Macro Trader”, John uses a multi-factor fundamental and “quantamental” trading model in distinguishing market cycles based upon the accelerations or decelerations of growth and inflation metrics. His technical and quantitative approach is heavily reliant upon trend and market range analysis via a custom built standard deviation system in helping him make probability-based market decisions. John is an avid reader of all things pertaining to finance, and behavioral economics. Click here to sign-up for John Caruso's Trading Coach Insights. Daily information and insight on all futures marketsin ranging from metals to equities.
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