More China news over the weekend – Trump moved the goal posts on the March 1stdeadline in tariffs. Chinese equities roared +5.5% overnight, cutting into the y/y decline and bringing it to -17% y/y. U.S. GDP is released on Thursday – our research team is forecasting 1.69% Q/Q for Q4 2018. Q1 2019 is being forecast at 1.7%. So, if you’re still looking for a catalyst to the 20% decline in Q4, look no further than the cycle.
You got to hand it to President Trump puppeteering the Federal Reserve and OPEC. Trump was out this morning chirping OPEC on Twitter about Oil prices getting too expensive. Oil immediately dropped following the tweet and sits down -2% on the day. Good. With our inflation accelerating call in Q2 this may give us some more attractive levels to position long of Oil – 55.40 is our bull/bear line with our immediate term range rising to 54.67-57.98.
Side Note: U.S. Equities are signaling extreme exhaustion at present levels but with VIX sub 15 for now the 5th day in a row is not a good look. Headed into GDP on Thursday will likely provide a set back for stocks but if the S&P 500 can sustain north of 2818 we’ll have to review our technical outlook as we approach the bull/bear line for equities. Immediate term downside to 2686 with upside to 2813 = HEAVY
Good Luck!
Actionable Levels:
Market |
Trend |
Range Low |
Range High |
|
|
|
|
SP500 |
Bearish |
2686 |
2813 |
Nasdaq Comp |
Neutral |
7256 |
7626 |
10yr Yield |
Bearish |
2.60% |
2.71% |
VIX |
Bullish |
13.11 |
18.65 |
Oil |
Neutral |
54.67 |
57.98 |
Nat Gas |
Bearish |
262 |
293 |
Gold |
Bullish |
1318 |
1352 |
USD (Cash) |
Neutral |
95.92 |
97.25 |
EUR/USD |
Bearish |
1.11 |
1.14 |
USD/JPY |
Bearish |
1.0925 |
1.111 |
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