RJO FuturesCast

Daily Futures Market News, Commentary, & Insight

Daily Futures Trading Update

Futures Market Insight w/John Caruso – 02/25/2019

Posted 02/25/2019 9:18AM CT | John Caruso

Bull and Bear Market

More China news over the weekend – Trump moved the goal posts on the March 1stdeadline in tariffs.  Chinese equities roared +5.5% overnight, cutting into the y/y decline and bringing it to -17% y/y.  U.S. GDP is released on Thursday – our research team is forecasting 1.69% Q/Q for Q4 2018.  Q1 2019 is being forecast at 1.7%.  So, if you’re still looking for a catalyst to the 20% decline in Q4, look no further than the cycle. 

You got to hand it to President Trump puppeteering the Federal Reserve and OPEC.  Trump was out this morning chirping OPEC on Twitter about Oil prices getting too expensive.  Oil immediately dropped following the tweet and sits down -2% on the day.  Good.  With our inflation accelerating call in Q2 this may give us some more attractive levels to position long of Oil – 55.40 is our bull/bear line with our immediate term range rising to 54.67-57.98. 

Side Note: U.S. Equities are signaling extreme exhaustion at present levels but with VIX sub 15 for now the 5th day in a row is not a good look.  Headed into GDP on Thursday will likely provide a set back for stocks but if the S&P 500 can sustain north of 2818 we’ll have to review our technical outlook as we approach the bull/bear line for equities.  Immediate term downside to 2686 with upside to 2813 = HEAVY

Good Luck!

Actionable Levels: 

Market

Trend

Range Low

Range High

 

 

 

 

SP500

Bearish

2686

2813

Nasdaq Comp

Neutral

7256

7626

10yr Yield

Bearish

2.60%

2.71%

VIX

Bullish

13.11

18.65

Oil

Neutral

54.67

57.98

Nat Gas

Bearish

262

293

Gold

Bullish

1318

1352

USD (Cash)

Neutral

95.92

97.25

EUR/USD

Bearish

1.11

1.14

USD/JPY

Bearish

1.0925

1.111

 

Feel free to reach out to John Caruso at jcaruso@rjofutures.com or 1-800-669-5354 if you’d like to get a 2 month free trial of our proprietary trade recommendations by email. 

Also, be sure you sign up for our exclusive RJO Futures PRO simulated demo account here.

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800-669-5354312-373-5286Series 3 Licensed

John Caruso

Senior Market Strategist
Follow John on Twitter @JCarusoRJO. John began his career at Wilshire Quinn Capital, a Wealth Management Firm based out of Los Angeles, California. Prior to becoming a broker he did some individual trading on his own, where he first began to study and interpret different market strategies and ideas. In 2006 John moved over to Lind-Waldock where he began to service clients as a professional broker. He joined RJO Futures in 2011.
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