Futures Trading Update

Futures Market Insight w/John Caruso – 02/26/2019

Posted 02/26/2019 8:17AM CTJohn Caruso

Bull and Bear Market

Interesting fact about Trump’s tweet at OPEC yesterday – The Energy sector is one of the top performing sectors YTD for the S&P 500 at +14.6% with the S&P 500 as a whole +10% ytd.  It’s almost a case of “You can’t have your cake and eat it too”.  You want cheaper oil, well prepare for lower oil stock prices as well. Moving on – the one thing I’m surprised by is that the data is actually worse than we thought.  Housing starts were putrid this morning for Dec, and we need not look back at retail sales -1.2%.  Earnings update: as we wind down 450/500 companies have reported y/y growth of +11.7%, that’s considerably lower from the peak cycle growth rate in Q3 of 24.5%.  Remember, we don’t care about “up or down”, we care about “are things getting better or worse”. 

Oil- big reversal yesterday, down over 3% for the session.  Oil is playing with our bull/bear trend line, and we’re still interested in buying opportunities here as we approach the low end of our range.  Of course energy is a highlighted long position as we head into Q2 2019 – Growth decel/Inflation accel. 

That’s about it for now.  Good Luck. 

Actionable Levels:

Market

Trend

Range Low

Range High

 

 

 

 

SP500

Bearish

2686

2811

Nasdaq Comp

Neutral

7256

7626

10yr Yield

Bearish

2.60%

2.71%

VIX

Bullish

13.22

19.26

Oil

Neutral

53.34

57.89

Nat Gas

Bearish

262

293

Gold

Bullish

1318

1352

USD (Cash)

Neutral

95.62

97.18

EUR/USD

Bearish

1.11

1.14

USD/JPY

Bearish

1.0925

1.111

 

Feel free to reach out to John Caruso at jcaruso@rjofutures.com or 1-800-669-5354 if you’d like to get a 2 month free trial of our proprietary trade recommendations by email. 

Also, be sure you sign up for our exclusive RJO Futures PRO simulated demo account here.

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800-669-5354312-373-5286Series 3 Licensed

John Caruso

Senior Market Strategist

Follow John on Twitter @JCarusoRJO. John began his career at Wilshire Quinn Capital, a Wealth Management Firm based out of Los Angeles, California. John made his move to the commodity industry at the end of 2005, and began his path at Lind Waldock, at the time the largest retail brokerage division worldwide. John did his undergraduate work at Robert Morris University in Pennsylvania from 1999-2003, where he was a 4 year varsity basketball letterman.  A self-professed “Macro Trader”, John uses a multi-factor fundamental and “quantamental” trading model in distinguishing market cycles based upon the accelerations or decelerations of growth and inflation metrics. His technical and quantitative approach is heavily reliant upon trend and market range analysis via a custom built standard deviation system in helping him make probability-based market decisions. John is an avid reader of all things pertaining to finance, and behavioral economics. Click here to sign-up for John Caruso's Trading Coach Insights. Daily information and insight on all futures marketsin ranging from metals to equities.

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