U.S./China trade resolution is blowing in the wind….but this is not your new bull market catalyst.  It’s been “buy the rumor” the entire year, and without that rumor/catalyst – all that we’re left with is the economic data and sorry to say….IT’S SLOWING.  Great day to be in there accumulating bonds and gold. For my “chartist’s” out there, I don’t doubt there’s been some damage to both charts (gold and bonds), but if you’re truly about the process, you’re in there buying.  I want to reiterate this again because many people take our analysis since the midway point of 2018 as doom and gloom and economic calamity …..WE DO NOT SEE AN ONCOMING ECONOMIC RECESSION.  We see a sequential slowdown in growth and earnings over the next 2 quarters.  And once again, if you’re truly about our process you’re buying markets that are bullish trend at the low end of our range and selling them at the top end of our range.  The market has NEVER recorded new all time highs when the growth component is DECELERATING.  Never. 

Breakdown:

S&P 500 encounters a massive traffic jam of resistance.  If we close above 2820 – then 2850-2875 are your next upside targets – Yes we’re at a critical level in stocks right now. 

Bonds- 2.76% was reached in the 10yr yield and it is overhead resistance for yields (support for bond prices).  IF for some reason the FED becomes hawkish again (we don’t think they will simply because they damn well know the cycle is slowing too which is why they went dovish to begin with), it will be another incredible opportunity to be in there buying Treasuries. 

Gold- Buying opportunity here.

Oil- testing a trend break down, thus this bounce is important this morning.  I actually expect a small downturn in Oil in the near-term – which will likely be a GREAT buying opportunity.

Market	Trend	Range Low	Range High	Notes
SP500	Neutral	2724	2816
Nasdaq Comp	Neutral	7368	7607
10yr Yield	Bearish	2.60%	2.78%
VIX	Bullish	13.21	18.18
Oil	Bearish	54	54.66
Gold	Bullish	1284	1354	Bull Bear Line is 1262
USD (Cash)	Neutral	95.75	96.96
EUR/USD	Bearish	1.11	1.14
USD/JPY	Bearish	110.4	112.15

 

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