Price action is bullish, but the volume dropped off 17% vs the previous day which tells us theirs less and less conviction behind this move higher in equities. The volatility component is registering the low end of the range (13.44) in the cash VIX. Our process suggests moving to neutral to bearish on U.S. equities – being mindful of the 2820.00 swing high from last week. Coming into today, the GDP nowcast we track had us at 1.17% and ticked up following the CAPEX data this morning to 1.28% – if you’re long the right sector components you can absolutely make money on the long side in a “Growth slowing/Inflation accelerating” environment. BUT, the inflation component via CPI and PPI has continued to decelerate and come April there’s going to be some reality that sets in on how slowing growth and inflation begin to affect not only the macro picture, but also company profits and earnings.
Oil- immediate term overbought/bullish trend – we’ll await today’s inventories and watch the reaction at the top of our range today at 57.90 – still waiting for the low end of the range at 55.46.
Gold- if you didn’t wine about our gold signal at 1316 and bought more below 1300 – well you’re in great shape today. Mindful of the idea that we could be topping out in the near-term in gold….we’ll keep coming back to this because of the tremendous upside potential as we move deeper into 2019. What’s the catalyst for gold? The FED and their monetary policy movements. If the FED moves the needle to “more Dovish” this would be the most bullish catalyst for the gold market……a dovish fed gets the USD moving lower, interest rates moving lower, which all equates to bullish Gold. 1275-1325 is your range in Gold.
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