Bull and Bear Market

Price action is bullish, but the volume dropped off 17% vs the previous day which tells us theirs less and less conviction behind this move higher in equities. The volatility component is registering the low end of the range (13.44) in the cash VIX.  Our process suggests moving to neutral to bearish on U.S. equities – being mindful of the 2820.00 swing high from last week. Coming into today, the GDP nowcast we track had us at 1.17% and ticked up following the CAPEX data this morning to 1.28% – if you’re long the right sector components you can absolutely make money on the long side in a “Growth slowing/Inflation accelerating” environment.  BUT, the inflation component via CPI and PPI has continued to decelerate and come April there’s going to be some reality that sets in on how slowing growth and inflation begin to affect not only the macro picture, but also company profits and earnings. 

Oil- immediate term overbought/bullish trend – we’ll await today’s inventories and watch the reaction at the top of our range today at 57.90 – still waiting for the low end of the range at 55.46.

Gold- if you didn’t wine about our gold signal at 1316 and bought more below 1300 – well you’re in great shape today. Mindful of the idea that we could be topping out in the near-term in gold….we’ll keep coming back to this because of the tremendous upside potential as we move deeper into 2019.  What’s the catalyst for gold? The FED and their monetary policy movements.  If the FED moves the needle to “more Dovish” this would be the most bullish catalyst for the gold market……a dovish fed gets the USD moving lower, interest rates moving lower, which all equates to bullish Gold.  1275-1325 is your range in Gold.

Good Luck!

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John Caruso

Senior Market Strategist
Follow John on Twitter @JCarusoRJO. John began his career at Wilshire Quinn Capital, a Wealth Management Firm based out of Los Angeles, California. John made his move to the commodity industry at the end of 2005, and began his path at Lind Waldock, at the time the largest retail brokerage division worldwide. John did his undergraduate work at Robert Morris University in Pennsylvania from 1999-2003, where he was a 4 year varsity basketball letterman.  A self-professed “Macro Trader”, John uses a multi-factor fundamental and “quantamental” trading model in distinguishing market cycles based upon the accelerations or decelerations of growth and inflation metrics. His technical and quantitative approach is heavily reliant upon trend and market range analysis via a custom built standard deviation system in helping him make probability-based market decisions. John is an avid reader of all things pertaining to finance, and behavioral economics. Click here to sign-up for John Caruso's Trading Coach Insights. Daily information and insight on all futures marketsin ranging from metals to equities.
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