Bull and Bear Market

Oil has pressed to +42% YTD – signaling immediate-term oversold, but momentum keeping the bulls in charge. Oil is one of the best long exposures you can have in a growth decel/Inflation accel environment. However, be careful. 

U.S. Equities- low volume melt up continued last week. Yesterday volumes were down -16% vs the 1 month avg. There is NO conviction behind this rally, but price action remains bullish on a 3-6 month duration for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, while the small caps via Russell 2000 remain bearish trend (3-6 month basis).  The Russell is also carrying an implied volatility discount of -18% vs 30 day realized.  A classic complacency signal. 

If you bought gold alongside us last week on the pull-back, thanks for executing on our process. China raised Gold reserves in March by 11.2M Tons to 60.2M in reserves – Bullish

Bonds: The IMF was out this morning downgrading global growth – something we’ve been preaching since last Sept.  The 10-yr yield is still sitting close to the top of our range at 2.50% this morning with the Fed Minutes on deck and 3 consecutive days of Powell speeches. 

Good Luck out there today! 

Actionable Trade Levels

Market

Trend

Range Low

Range High

 

 

 

 

SP500

Bullish

2796

2919

Nasdaq Comp

Bullish

7610

8040

Russell 2000

Bearish

1505

1589

10yr Yield

Bearish

2.35%

2.56%

VIX

Bearish

12.6

16.4

Oil

Bullish

59.66

65

Gold

Bullish

1285

1317

USD (Cash)

Neutral

95.75

97.37

EUR/USD

Bearish

1.11

1.13

USD/JPY

Bearish

110.11

112.13

 

Feel free to reach out to John Caruso at jcaruso@rjofutures.com or 1-800-669-5354 if you’d like to get a 2 month free trial of our proprietary trade recommendations by email. 

Also, be sure you sign up for our exclusive RJO Futures PRO simulated demo account here.

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John Caruso

Senior Market Strategist
Follow John on Twitter @JCarusoRJO. John began his career at Wilshire Quinn Capital, a Wealth Management Firm based out of Los Angeles, California. John made his move to the commodity industry at the end of 2005, and began his path at Lind Waldock, at the time the largest retail brokerage division worldwide. John did his undergraduate work at Robert Morris University in Pennsylvania from 1999-2003, where he was a 4 year varsity basketball letterman.  A self-professed “Macro Trader”, John uses a multi-factor fundamental and “quantamental” trading model in distinguishing market cycles based upon the accelerations or decelerations of growth and inflation metrics. His technical and quantitative approach is heavily reliant upon trend and market range analysis via a custom built standard deviation system in helping him make probability-based market decisions. John is an avid reader of all things pertaining to finance, and behavioral economics. Click here to sign-up for John Caruso's Trading Coach Insights. Daily information and insight on all futures marketsin ranging from metals to equities.
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