RJO FuturesCast

Daily Futures Market News, Commentary, & Insight

Daily Futures Trading Update

Futures Market Insight w/John Caruso – 04/09/2019

Posted 04/09/2019 10:36AM CT | John Caruso

Bull and Bear Market

Oil has pressed to +42% YTD – signaling immediate-term oversold, but momentum keeping the bulls in charge. Oil is one of the best long exposures you can have in a growth decel/Inflation accel environment. However, be careful. 

U.S. Equities- low volume melt up continued last week. Yesterday volumes were down -16% vs the 1 month avg. There is NO conviction behind this rally, but price action remains bullish on a 3-6 month duration for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, while the small caps via Russell 2000 remain bearish trend (3-6 month basis).  The Russell is also carrying an implied volatility discount of -18% vs 30 day realized.  A classic complacency signal. 

If you bought gold alongside us last week on the pull-back, thanks for executing on our process. China raised Gold reserves in March by 11.2M Tons to 60.2M in reserves – Bullish

Bonds: The IMF was out this morning downgrading global growth – something we’ve been preaching since last Sept.  The 10-yr yield is still sitting close to the top of our range at 2.50% this morning with the Fed Minutes on deck and 3 consecutive days of Powell speeches. 

Good Luck out there today! 

Actionable Trade Levels

Market

Trend

Range Low

Range High

 

 

 

 

SP500

Bullish

2796

2919

Nasdaq Comp

Bullish

7610

8040

Russell 2000

Bearish

1505

1589

10yr Yield

Bearish

2.35%

2.56%

VIX

Bearish

12.6

16.4

Oil

Bullish

59.66

65

Gold

Bullish

1285

1317

USD (Cash)

Neutral

95.75

97.37

EUR/USD

Bearish

1.11

1.13

USD/JPY

Bearish

110.11

112.13

 

Feel free to reach out to John Caruso at jcaruso@rjofutures.com or 1-800-669-5354 if you’d like to get a 2 month free trial of our proprietary trade recommendations by email. 

Also, be sure you sign up for our exclusive RJO Futures PRO simulated demo account here.

RJO Futures PRO Simulated Account includes:

  • -$100K simulated trading capital
  • -Live Streaming Quotes and Charts to help you test out your trading abilities in real-time.
  • -Access to our Professional Trading Desk for advice and free daily research.

 

800-669-5354312-373-5286Series 3 Licensed

John Caruso

Senior Market Strategist
Follow John on Twitter @JCarusoRJO. John began his career at Wilshire Quinn Capital, a Wealth Management Firm based out of Los Angeles, California. Prior to becoming a broker he did some individual trading on his own, where he first began to study and interpret different market strategies and ideas. In 2006 John moved over to Lind-Waldock where he began to service clients as a professional broker. He joined RJO Futures in 2011.
Read More