RJO FuturesCast

Daily Futures Market News, Commentary, & Insight

Bull and Bear Market

U.S. Treasuries have had a great week….thus far. We want to continue to allocate the USTs when yields bounce to the top of our range – currently 2.54%(top of range) on the 10yr yield. So today, with yields approaching the low end of our range (2.42%), you start trimming gains. USTs remain our favorite long position in macro today. 

Equities: I’m interested in the Nasdaq’s to be honest – we do own some as of late yesterday as the Composite hit the low end of our range yesterday, we’ll buy the dip for a trade.  Implied volatility is at massive premium in the S&P 500 (+96%) WITH the VIX signaling immediate term trade overbought.  VIX has moved to bullish trend, so whatever we do in equities on the long side will be brief.  The trend line in the S&P 500 is still firmly intact (2819) – however the immediate term “trade” line has snapped. 

China: Shanghai Index is back to bearish trend -10% m/m as tariff increases loom but negotiations are ongoing. 

Yen: the USD/JPY has now moved to “bearish” trend (bullish Yen futures).  We’ll be buying dips here back to the low end of our range in the Futures (top end of the USD/JPY. 

ES (bullish) 2876-2924

10yr yield (bearish) 2.42-2.54%

VIX (bullish) 1398-2098

Gold (bullish) 1269-1299

USD/JPY (Bearish) 1.0969-1.1146


Feel free to reach out to John Caruso at jcaruso@rjofutures.com or 1-800-669-5354 if you’d like to get a 2 month free trial of our proprietary trade recommendations by email. 

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John Caruso

Senior Market Strategist
Follow John on Twitter @JCarusoRJO. John began his career at Wilshire Quinn Capital, a Wealth Management Firm based out of Los Angeles, California. Prior to becoming a broker he did some individual trading on his own, where he first began to study and interpret different market strategies and ideas. In 2006 John moved over to Lind-Waldock where he began to service clients as a professional broker. He joined RJO Futures in 2011.
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