Bull and Bear Market

U.S. Treasuries have had a great week….thus far. We want to continue to allocate the USTs when yields bounce to the top of our range – currently 2.54%(top of range) on the 10yr yield. So today, with yields approaching the low end of our range (2.42%), you start trimming gains. USTs remain our favorite long position in macro today. 

Equities: I’m interested in the Nasdaq’s to be honest – we do own some as of late yesterday as the Composite hit the low end of our range yesterday, we’ll buy the dip for a trade.  Implied volatility is at massive premium in the S&P 500 (+96%) WITH the VIX signaling immediate term trade overbought.  VIX has moved to bullish trend, so whatever we do in equities on the long side will be brief.  The trend line in the S&P 500 is still firmly intact (2819) – however the immediate term “trade” line has snapped. 

China: Shanghai Index is back to bearish trend -10% m/m as tariff increases loom but negotiations are ongoing. 

Yen: the USD/JPY has now moved to “bearish” trend (bullish Yen futures).  We’ll be buying dips here back to the low end of our range in the Futures (top end of the USD/JPY. 

ES (bullish) 2876-2924

10yr yield (bearish) 2.42-2.54%

VIX (bullish) 1398-2098

Gold (bullish) 1269-1299

USD/JPY (Bearish) 1.0969-1.1146


Feel free to reach out to John Caruso at jcaruso@rjofutures.com or 1-800-669-5354 if you’d like to get a 2 month free trial of our proprietary trade recommendations by email. 

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John Caruso

Senior Market Strategist
Follow John on Twitter @JCarusoRJO. John began his career at Wilshire Quinn Capital, a Wealth Management Firm based out of Los Angeles, California. John made his move to the commodity industry at the end of 2005, and began his path at Lind Waldock, at the time the largest retail brokerage division worldwide. John did his undergraduate work at Robert Morris University in Pennsylvania from 1999-2003, where he was a 4 year varsity basketball letterman.  A self-professed “Macro Trader”, John uses a multi-factor fundamental and “quantamental” trading model in distinguishing market cycles based upon the accelerations or decelerations of growth and inflation metrics. His technical and quantitative approach is heavily reliant upon trend and market range analysis via a custom built standard deviation system in helping him make probability-based market decisions. John is an avid reader of all things pertaining to finance, and behavioral economics. Click here to sign-up for John Caruso's Trading Coach Insights. Daily information and insight on all futures marketsin ranging from metals to equities.
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