Stocks are doing what stocks usually do into holiday weekends, expanding range on both the SPY and Nasdaq’s.  Notice the NASDAQ OB/OS signal dropping to 54!  Which makes it neither OB or OS but almost “Goldilocks” if you will. I recall crude oil doing something very similar just prior to its big run higher. Just an observation. Our call remains following a period of respite, stocks are likely to continue to carry higher into year-end, and we’ll likely favor the tech heavy Nasdaq. 

-Crude Oil is finally triggering an immediate OB signal of 93, but remains firmly bullish trend and of course carrying positive momentum. Oil is our leading indicator for inflation

Gold and Silver are catching bids this morning on some dollar “weakness”, but I’m skeptical of this bounce to be honest, we’ll watch from here. Gold is carrying a bearish trend, along with Negative momentum in our model. 

Copper prices are still holding negative momentum, with a neutral trend. While we think another sell-off here likely presents and optimal buying opportunity into year-end, I’d be a little more patient here. Our price range below suggests another fall off to 408.00 is probable. 

US Unemployment Claims fell to at pandemic low of 364K vs 415K last week, which only solidifies our hypothesis of a strengthening jobs market. 

We’ll see you back here tomorrow for the June Non-Farm Payrolls data where the market is expected to add 600K new jobs. 

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John Caruso

Senior Market Strategist

Follow John on Twitter @JCarusoRJO. John began his career at Wilshire Quinn Capital, a Wealth Management Firm based out of Los Angeles, California. John made his move to the commodity industry at the end of 2005, and began his path at Lind Waldock, at the time the largest retail brokerage division worldwide. John did his undergraduate work at Robert Morris University in Pennsylvania from 1999-2003, where he was a 4 year varsity basketball letterman.  A self-professed “Macro Trader”, John uses a multi-factor fundamental and “quantamental” trading model in distinguishing market cycles based upon the accelerations or decelerations of growth and inflation metrics. His technical and quantitative approach is heavily reliant upon trend and market range analysis via a custom built standard deviation system in helping him make probability-based market decisions. John is an avid reader of all things pertaining to finance, and behavioral economics. Click here to sign-up for John Caruso's Trading Coach Insights. Daily information and insight on all futures marketsin ranging from metals to equities.

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