NF Payrolls data:

1.8M jobs created vs 1.6M exp – Beat
10.25% rate vs 10.5% – Beat


May and June Payroll were revised up a net 9K

All of this was better than expected and what’s most concerning is the massive gap between the ADP data on Wed (showing 160K jobs created) vs today’s data showing 1.6M, and the potential for large revisions LOWER next month. Hmm. 

Markets are chopping following the number, no real direction for the day thus far.  Now the attention gets turned back to Washington DC and whether they can piece together a deal ahead of their Aug recess. I’d expect some near-term “fireworks” here as the deadline looms. 


Global Equities: Europe was choppy to lower, Shanghai lost 1.00% overnight (remains bullish trend), but threatening a correction as Tencent becomes Trump’s new target. The U.S. is looking at modestly lower open. Stay bullish Tech, but bearish on Small Caps. 

Bonds/Yields:  despite the “better than expected” data, they can’t crack the bond market/lower yields.  We’ve been in about 6-8 bps range in the 10yr for the past 2 weeks. 

Gold/Silver: Following Silver’s overnight ramp to $30.00, it’s now $1.50 off the highs.  We’ll wait patiently to signal here.  Gold same thing, bounce overnight now backing off $27.00 off the highs. 

I’m going to keep it relatively brief as we’re fairly swamped on this end.  Back soon.

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John Caruso

Senior Market Strategist
Follow John on Twitter @JCarusoRJO. John began his career at Wilshire Quinn Capital, a Wealth Management Firm based out of Los Angeles, California. John made his move to the commodity industry at the end of 2005, and began his path at Lind Waldock, at the time the largest retail brokerage division worldwide. John did his undergraduate work at Robert Morris University in Pennsylvania from 1999-2003, where he was a 4 year varsity basketball letterman.  A self-professed “Macro Trader”, John uses a multi-factor fundamental and “quantamental” trading model in distinguishing market cycles based upon the accelerations or decelerations of growth and inflation metrics. His technical and quantitative approach is heavily reliant upon trend and market range analysis via a custom built standard deviation system in helping him make probability-based market decisions. John is an avid reader of all things pertaining to finance, and behavioral economics. Click here to sign-up for John Caruso's Trading Coach Insights. Daily information and insight on all futures marketsin ranging from metals to equities.
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