RJO FuturesCast

Daily Futures Market News, Commentary, & Insight

NF Payrolls data:

1.8M jobs created vs 1.6M exp – Beat
10.25% rate vs 10.5% – Beat

Revisions:

May and June Payroll were revised up a net 9K

All of this was better than expected and what’s most concerning is the massive gap between the ADP data on Wed (showing 160K jobs created) vs today’s data showing 1.6M, and the potential for large revisions LOWER next month. Hmm. 

Markets are chopping following the number, no real direction for the day thus far.  Now the attention gets turned back to Washington DC and whether they can piece together a deal ahead of their Aug recess. I’d expect some near-term “fireworks” here as the deadline looms. 

Rundown:

Global Equities: Europe was choppy to lower, Shanghai lost 1.00% overnight (remains bullish trend), but threatening a correction as Tencent becomes Trump’s new target. The U.S. is looking at modestly lower open. Stay bullish Tech, but bearish on Small Caps. 

Bonds/Yields:  despite the “better than expected” data, they can’t crack the bond market/lower yields.  We’ve been in about 6-8 bps range in the 10yr for the past 2 weeks. 

Gold/Silver: Following Silver’s overnight ramp to $30.00, it’s now $1.50 off the highs.  We’ll wait patiently to signal here.  Gold same thing, bounce overnight now backing off $27.00 off the highs. 

I’m going to keep it relatively brief as we’re fairly swamped on this end.  Back soon.

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John Caruso

Senior Market Strategist
Follow John on Twitter @JCarusoRJO. John began his career at Wilshire Quinn Capital, a Wealth Management Firm based out of Los Angeles, California. Prior to becoming a broker he did some individual trading on his own, where he first began to study and interpret different market strategies and ideas. In 2006 John moved over to Lind-Waldock where he began to service clients as a professional broker. He joined RJO Futures in 2011.
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