Will the Fed do enough this Friday at Jackson Hole? That’s the question now – will Powell be able to convince FOMC members to cut 50bps OR will the Fed continue to take their cues from lagging economic data – the cycle is slowing, and slowing at a faster rate of change now. If the Fed doesn’t pull the trigger on 50bps, we think the “risk off” trade remains in place into October. The dollar is strong, and is a quad 4 long exposure – but we do expect this top out into the Fall.

Let’s check in the President on this subject matter….

In short Trump: “The economy is strong, but need 100 bps and perhaps some QE as well”. What a time to be alive!

We sold this counter-trend bounce in the S&P 500 yesterday – in a perfect world, we’d prefer to cover ahead of the Fed, but we’ll see what develops as the week moves fwd.

Earnings- No earnings recession yet, as we had forecasted, BUT with 465/500 companies reported – we’re now at a Q2 EPS low of +1.56% with Energy, Materials, CD, CS, and Tech all down y/y.

Feel free to reach out to John Caruso at jcaruso@rjofutures.com or 1-800-669-5354 if you’d like to get a 2 month free trial of our proprietary trade recommendations by email. 

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John Caruso

Senior Market Strategist
Follow John on Twitter @JCarusoRJO. John began his career at Wilshire Quinn Capital, a Wealth Management Firm based out of Los Angeles, California. John made his move to the commodity industry at the end of 2005, and began his path at Lind Waldock, at the time the largest retail brokerage division worldwide. John did his undergraduate work at Robert Morris University in Pennsylvania from 1999-2003, where he was a 4 year varsity basketball letterman.  A self-professed “Macro Trader”, John uses a multi-factor fundamental and “quantamental” trading model in distinguishing market cycles based upon the accelerations or decelerations of growth and inflation metrics. His technical and quantitative approach is heavily reliant upon trend and market range analysis via a custom built standard deviation system in helping him make probability-based market decisions. John is an avid reader of all things pertaining to finance, and behavioral economics. Click here to sign-up for John Caruso's Trading Coach Insights. Daily information and insight on all futures marketsin ranging from metals to equities.
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