Now that Trump has labeled Xi “the enemy”, and has ORDERED ALL U.S. COMPANIES OUT OF CHINA – we’ve reached a very dangerous/heightened state in this trade war….now it’s tit for tat until somebody gets maimed. To state the obvious, Xi is president for life, Trump perhaps has 1 more year left. The heat is likely going to get turned up from here. Do you think China’s announcement of tariffs 2 hours ahead of Powell’s Jackson Hole speech was a coincidence? To be quite honest, and this may be a little bit of a “hot take”, but anything short of QE by the Fed, the market may act as if its “NOT DOVISH ENOUGH”. 

Also, this last melt up in the dollar may have been all she wrote and this fits within our model suggesting inflation will reaccelerate in Q4 2019.   

I’m not a foreign policy expert, far from it, and I’m very apolitical when it comes to trading, but this has gotten borderline out of control. Labeling Xi and Powell enemies is not the correct approach.  And I do believe confronting China on is 100% NECESSARY for the long-term interest of the United States, but  this is turning into a shit storm of epic proportions.  Headed out for the weekend.  Have a good one.

Feel free to reach out to John Caruso at or 1-800-669-5354 if you’d like to get a 2 month free trial of our proprietary trade recommendations by email. 

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John Caruso

Senior Market Strategist

Follow John on Twitter @JCarusoRJO. John began his career at Wilshire Quinn Capital, a Wealth Management Firm based out of Los Angeles, California. John made his move to the commodity industry at the end of 2005, and began his path at Lind Waldock, at the time the largest retail brokerage division worldwide. John did his undergraduate work at Robert Morris University in Pennsylvania from 1999-2003, where he was a 4 year varsity basketball letterman.  A self-professed “Macro Trader”, John uses a multi-factor fundamental and “quantamental” trading model in distinguishing market cycles based upon the accelerations or decelerations of growth and inflation metrics. His technical and quantitative approach is heavily reliant upon trend and market range analysis via a custom built standard deviation system in helping him make probability-based market decisions. John is an avid reader of all things pertaining to finance, and behavioral economics. Click here to sign-up for John Caruso's Trading Coach Insights. Daily information and insight on all futures marketsin ranging from metals to equities.

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