RJO FuturesCast

Daily Futures Market News, Commentary, & Insight

Daily Futures Trading Update

Futures Market Insight w/John Caruso – 09/05/2019

Posted 09/05/2019 10:45AM CT | John Caruso

Oh boy, the “Fear Of Missing Out” is alive and well today!  Trump/Xi – Save the Date – Early October XOXO – Actually it’s the low level negotiators that are meeting, attempting to prep a Trump and Xi meeting at a later date. Nevertheless, stocks love the news, SP500 +30pts overnight, Dow +260pts – both trading at the top end of their respective trading ranges. Freak out low, chase high – that’s how Wall Street does it.  Then there’s the idea/theory out there of whether China is playing the long game (Xi earlier this week telling the CPC to “prepare for a long term struggle) – regardless, the reason we use the market ranges to dictate our entry points in the market is for me to FADE MY EMOTIONS – Trading is a very emotional game, and as you can see the fear of missing out rally this morning is built squarely on emotion.    

Stocks- immediate-term overbought, and a hefty implied volatility discount of -31% this morning. 

Gold- if there’s another FOMO trade out there, it was in gold yesterday.  -15.00 this morning with the USD Dollar -0.21% as well. Don’t get me wrong, we still love gold! We’d just prefer not to chase the trade and re-allocate lower. 

USD- We hold the fundamental opinion that the dollar is topping out.  This has been our call since June that the USD is set to “top” in Q3 2019.  Are we seeing?  We might be.  Remember we have the US (and many other developed economies around the World) reaccelerating come Q4 (October) – This is not a bullish set-up for USD.  Yes we think the Dollar is topping out. 

Oil- With the call for a reacceleration in Q4 – Oil/Energy will be a top long position.  We’re not going to front run this however, we’ll be patient and wait and watch for now.  Oil remains BEARISH trend, and at the top of our range.  Which means, the probability of another set-back from here is high.  Don’t front run us, we’ll eventually get there.

Note: We’re adding the Yen to our list of Longs this morning.  The Yen remains bullish trend vs the USD and IF the USD is topping out, will be a top performing currency vs the rest of the complex. 

Bullish
Gold GC Jan 8 2019 Commodity Futures
Utilities XLU July 5 2018 Equities
2yr Notes ZT July 5 2018 Fixed Income Futures
10yr Notes ZN July 5 2018 Fixed Income Futures
30yr Bonds ZB July 5 2018 Fixed Income Futures
Japanese Yen 6J Sept 5 2019 Currency Futures
Bearish
Russell 2000 RTY Feb 5 2019 Equity Futures
Financials XLF July 5 2018 Domestic Equities
Interest Rates N/A July 5 2018 Fixed Income

Good Luck!

Feel free to reach out to John Caruso at jcaruso@rjofutures.com or 1-800-669-5354 if you’d like to get a 2 month free trial of our proprietary trade recommendations by email. 

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John Caruso

Senior Market Strategist
Follow John on Twitter @JCarusoRJO. John began his career at Wilshire Quinn Capital, a Wealth Management Firm based out of Los Angeles, California. Prior to becoming a broker he did some individual trading on his own, where he first began to study and interpret different market strategies and ideas. In 2006 John moved over to Lind-Waldock where he began to service clients as a professional broker. He joined RJO Futures in 2011.
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