Oh boy, the “Fear Of Missing Out” is alive and well today!  Trump/Xi – Save the Date – Early October XOXO – Actually it’s the low level negotiators that are meeting, attempting to prep a Trump and Xi meeting at a later date. Nevertheless, stocks love the news, SP500 +30pts overnight, Dow +260pts – both trading at the top end of their respective trading ranges. Freak out low, chase high – that’s how Wall Street does it.  Then there’s the idea/theory out there of whether China is playing the long game (Xi earlier this week telling the CPC to “prepare for a long term struggle) – regardless, the reason we use the market ranges to dictate our entry points in the market is for me to FADE MY EMOTIONS – Trading is a very emotional game, and as you can see the fear of missing out rally this morning is built squarely on emotion.    

Stocks- immediate-term overbought, and a hefty implied volatility discount of -31% this morning. 

Gold- if there’s another FOMO trade out there, it was in gold yesterday.  -15.00 this morning with the USD Dollar -0.21% as well. Don’t get me wrong, we still love gold! We’d just prefer not to chase the trade and re-allocate lower. 

USD- We hold the fundamental opinion that the dollar is topping out.  This has been our call since June that the USD is set to “top” in Q3 2019.  Are we seeing?  We might be.  Remember we have the US (and many other developed economies around the World) reaccelerating come Q4 (October) – This is not a bullish set-up for USD.  Yes we think the Dollar is topping out. 

Oil- With the call for a reacceleration in Q4 – Oil/Energy will be a top long position.  We’re not going to front run this however, we’ll be patient and wait and watch for now.  Oil remains BEARISH trend, and at the top of our range.  Which means, the probability of another set-back from here is high.  Don’t front run us, we’ll eventually get there.

Note: We’re adding the Yen to our list of Longs this morning.  The Yen remains bullish trend vs the USD and IF the USD is topping out, will be a top performing currency vs the rest of the complex. 

Gold GC Jan 8 2019 Commodity Futures
Utilities XLU July 5 2018 Equities
2yr Notes ZT July 5 2018 Fixed Income Futures
10yr Notes ZN July 5 2018 Fixed Income Futures
30yr Bonds ZB July 5 2018 Fixed Income Futures
Japanese Yen 6J Sept 5 2019 Currency Futures
Russell 2000 RTY Feb 5 2019 Equity Futures
Financials XLF July 5 2018 Domestic Equities
Interest Rates N/A July 5 2018 Fixed Income

Good Luck!

Feel free to reach out to John Caruso at jcaruso@rjofutures.com or 1-800-669-5354 if you’d like to get a 2 month free trial of our proprietary trade recommendations by email. 

Also, be sure you sign up for our exclusive RJO Futures PRO simulated demo account here.

RJO Futures PRO Simulated Account includes:

  • -$100K simulated trading capital
  • -Live Streaming Quotes and Charts to help you test out your trading abilities in real-time.
  • -Access to our Professional Trading Desk for advice and free daily research.


800-669-5354312-373-5286Series 3 Licensed

John Caruso

Senior Market Strategist

Follow John on Twitter @JCarusoRJO. John began his career at Wilshire Quinn Capital, a Wealth Management Firm based out of Los Angeles, California. John made his move to the commodity industry at the end of 2005, and began his path at Lind Waldock, at the time the largest retail brokerage division worldwide. John did his undergraduate work at Robert Morris University in Pennsylvania from 1999-2003, where he was a 4 year varsity basketball letterman.  A self-professed “Macro Trader”, John uses a multi-factor fundamental and “quantamental” trading model in distinguishing market cycles based upon the accelerations or decelerations of growth and inflation metrics. His technical and quantitative approach is heavily reliant upon trend and market range analysis via a custom built standard deviation system in helping him make probability-based market decisions. John is an avid reader of all things pertaining to finance, and behavioral economics. Click here to sign-up for John Caruso's Trading Coach Insights. Daily information and insight on all futures marketsin ranging from metals to equities.

Read More