Oh boy, the “Fear Of Missing Out” is alive and well today! Trump/Xi – Save the Date – Early October XOXO – Actually it’s the low level negotiators that are meeting, attempting to prep a Trump and Xi meeting at a later date. Nevertheless, stocks love the news, SP500 +30pts overnight, Dow +260pts – both trading at the top end of their respective trading ranges. Freak out low, chase high – that’s how Wall Street does it. Then there’s the idea/theory out there of whether China is playing the long game (Xi earlier this week telling the CPC to “prepare for a long term struggle) – regardless, the reason we use the market ranges to dictate our entry points in the market is for me to FADE MY EMOTIONS – Trading is a very emotional game, and as you can see the fear of missing out rally this morning is built squarely on emotion.
Stocks- immediate-term overbought, and a hefty implied volatility discount of -31% this morning.
Gold- if there’s another FOMO trade out there, it was in gold yesterday. -15.00 this morning with the USD Dollar -0.21% as well. Don’t get me wrong, we still love gold! We’d just prefer not to chase the trade and re-allocate lower.
USD- We hold the fundamental opinion that the dollar is topping out. This has been our call since June that the USD is set to “top” in Q3 2019. Are we seeing? We might be. Remember we have the US (and many other developed economies around the World) reaccelerating come Q4 (October) – This is not a bullish set-up for USD. Yes we think the Dollar is topping out.
Oil- With the call for a reacceleration in Q4 – Oil/Energy will be a top long position. We’re not going to front run this however, we’ll be patient and wait and watch for now. Oil remains BEARISH trend, and at the top of our range. Which means, the probability of another set-back from here is high. Don’t front run us, we’ll eventually get there.
Note: We’re adding the Yen to our list of Longs this morning. The Yen remains bullish trend vs the USD and IF the USD is topping out, will be a top performing currency vs the rest of the complex.
|Gold||GC||Jan 8 2019||Commodity Futures|
|Utilities||XLU||July 5 2018||Equities|
|2yr Notes||ZT||July 5 2018||Fixed Income Futures|
|10yr Notes||ZN||July 5 2018||Fixed Income Futures|
|30yr Bonds||ZB||July 5 2018||Fixed Income Futures|
|Japanese Yen||6J||Sept 5 2019||Currency Futures|
|Russell 2000||RTY||Feb 5 2019||Equity Futures|
|Financials||XLF||July 5 2018||Domestic Equities|
|Interest Rates||N/A||July 5 2018||Fixed Income|
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