Economy

Futures Market Insight w/John Caruso – 10/22/2021

Posted 10/22/2021 1:34PM CTJohn Caruso

*The SP500 is pressing an ATH this morning and upside now to 4560. 

*The NASDAQ has upside in the near-term to 15,541

*The Russell 2000 actually has the weakest profile at the moment, after having the strongest just a month ago during the volatility spikes in SPY and NQ – upside in the Russell 2000 to 2305, but the RVX (Russ Vol) still suggesting even more room on the downside to 18.66.

Your tell-tale sign has been the 10-yr yield breaking out of its lethargic 1.20-1.30 range at the end of September to tack on 40bps in a mere 30 day period. 

The GDP and Inflation model we track has Q4 GDP estimated at 6.42% q/q, and 5.84% y/y (last updated on Monday).  Headline inflation for Q4 6.42% q/q and 5.84% y/y, Headline inflation 5.37% – and if you think these estimates are HIGH, the market isn’t suggesting so this morning. 

Lastly, IVOL discounts are growing day/day and week/week – this is telling you that Wall Street is getting LONGER.   

Also, Gold – we’re getting ready to move on this again. 

800-669-5354312-373-5286Series 3 Licensed

John Caruso

Senior Market Strategist
Follow John on Twitter @JCarusoRJO. John began his career at Wilshire Quinn Capital, a Wealth Management Firm based out of Los Angeles, California. John made his move to the commodity industry at the end of 2005, and began his path at Lind Waldock, at the time the largest retail brokerage division worldwide. John did his undergraduate work at Robert Morris University in Pennsylvania from 1999-2003, where he was a 4 year varsity basketball letterman.  A self-professed “Macro Trader”, John uses a multi-factor fundamental and “quantamental” trading model in distinguishing market cycles based upon the accelerations or decelerations of growth and inflation metrics. His technical and quantitative approach is heavily reliant upon trend and market range analysis via a custom built standard deviation system in helping him make probability-based market decisions. John is an avid reader of all things pertaining to finance, and behavioral economics. Click here to sign-up for John Caruso's Trading Coach Insights. Daily information and insight on all futures marketsin ranging from metals to equities.
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