A quick rundown-
Stocks went back into crash mode, with Asian equities leading the charge – That didn’t take long following Chinese stimulus efforts over the weekend. Shanghai Index was down -2.25%, Heng Seng -3.0%, Nikkei -2.53%. Heavy U.S. selling in the U.S. futures markets began at approximately 7pm cst and picked up steadily throughout the overnight. S&P500 -1.37%, NQ -1.62%, Russell Index -1.0% – all bearish trend. U.S. equities are quickly descending to the low end of our ranges, so do not run out and short stocks off the open. You know better than that. Properly managing the market ranges is THE MOST INVALUABLE part of our trading methodology.
Flight to safety in the U.S. Fixed Income markets is beginning to manifest – 30yr +0.6%, 10yr +.32% and gold +1.37%. This is likely just the first inning of this move. These are macro events that are just beginning to manifest, and your CNBCs can’t point to “higher rates” today. We don’t chase headlines. U.S. growth slowing is set for the next 2 quarters, and China is set to slow further. The trade war with China has lasted longer (and even has gotten deeper) than what many expected – and will continue to escalate. Global growth forecasts are expected to slow from 3.5% to 3.0% as the IMF continues to pair back their forecasts.
*Corporate profits and earnings will soon have to compare against tax cuts y/y – coupled with rising U.S. working wages, this will not be a good look for forward guidance.
The Fed and Interest Rates Outlook:
The Fed will likely look past weaker headline inflation and continue to tighten rates to contain underlying inflation. However, we do believe the Fed is closer to the end of its tightening cycle than certainly the beginning. We’re forecasting that Fed will likely raise rate until mid 2019, pause, and then begin to cut in 2020. The Bond futures are some of the heaviest shorted markets in all of Macro data according to the CFTC. Once again, if I’ve learned 1 thing in my 15y years of experience, it’s that “heard mentality” is rarely correct for an extended period of time.
bearish Equities via SP500, Nasdaq, and Russell
bullish Bonds – still bearish trend and non-consensus
bearish USD – still bullish trend and non-consensus
Once again – None of the above matters if you don’t know how to properly manage the trading ranges.
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