Bull and Bear Market

Our quants nailed Q3 GDP this morning – expecting 3.5% vs the wall streets estimates of 3.3%.  Even more reason to believe we’re on the right track for this rate of change slowdown (or less good) in growth and inflation moving forward.  The smartest trader of them all has already began to sniff this out – The Market itself.  This GDP reading was up 17bps and +3.04% y/y – the fastest pace of growth in 3yrs and will likely conclude this historic run in growth at 9 consecutive quarters! 

The USD is now immediate term overbought, and we’ll likely see a “hiccup” in the USD from here – still very much bullish trend – but a very crowded trade right here.  This could be boon for Gold prices in the near-term, but I don’t want to get too far out in front as next weeks Unemployment data is likely to express more wage growth.  Wage growth remains a classic late or peak cycle indicator as well. 

Don’t confuse our near-term “bearishness” with doom and gloom for the US economy.  We’re not calling for recession by any stretch, we’re simply calling for the data in Q4 thru Q1 2019 to look less attractive when comp’d y/y. 

Good luck out there and as always, reach out for any further commentary. 


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John Caruso

Senior Market Strategist

Follow John on Twitter @JCarusoRJO. John began his career at Wilshire Quinn Capital, a Wealth Management Firm based out of Los Angeles, California. John made his move to the commodity industry at the end of 2005, and began his path at Lind Waldock, at the time the largest retail brokerage division worldwide. John did his undergraduate work at Robert Morris University in Pennsylvania from 1999-2003, where he was a 4 year varsity basketball letterman.  A self-professed “Macro Trader”, John uses a multi-factor fundamental and “quantamental” trading model in distinguishing market cycles based upon the accelerations or decelerations of growth and inflation metrics. His technical and quantitative approach is heavily reliant upon trend and market range analysis via a custom built standard deviation system in helping him make probability-based market decisions. John is an avid reader of all things pertaining to finance, and behavioral economics. Click here to sign-up for John Caruso's Trading Coach Insights. Daily information and insight on all futures marketsin ranging from metals to equities.

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