RJO FuturesCast

Daily Futures Market News, Commentary, & Insight

Bull and Bear Market

Welcome back from the weekend-

Last week was a great week to be long U.S. Treasuries (at both the long and short end of the curve).  Remember when the 10-Yr yield hit 3.25% and the whole CNBC world panicked and sold short U.S. Treasures – we didn’t thankfully. 10-Yr yields fell 11 bps last week to 3.06%.  We do however have a catalyst that could very easily push yields higher/bonds lower in the back end of the week, and that’s wage growth expectations.  While wage growth remains a late cycle indicator and a deterrent of lower bond yields (for the time being), we should continue to see headline inflation slow m/m and y/y via the CPI data.  So we’re trying to balance those two indicators for the time being, and ultimately the cycle will dictate the direction intermediate/longer-term direction – you all know where we stand here. 

Overnight News-

China was down another -2.2% and down -29% from the January peak    
German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced that she will not be seeking any further political offices past 2021. 
Oil -1.15% and not quite to the low end of our range. 
Gold -0.28% – we’ll be looking at entering closer to 1220.00

Price remains bearish trend
Volume increases on down days remains a bearish indicator
Volatility remains north of 20.00 (cash VIX) which is also a bearish indicator

The feds favorite inflation gauge (Core PCE Index) – held flat y/y at 2.0%

Feel free to reach out to John Caruso at jcaruso@rjofutures.com or 1-800-669-5354 if you’d like to get a 2 month free trial of our proprietary trade recommendations by email. 

Also, be sure you sign up for our exclusive RJO Futures PRO simulated demo account here.

RJO Futures PRO Simulated Account includes:

  • -$100K simulated trading capital
  • -Live Streaming Quotes and Charts to help you test out your trading abilities in real-time.
  • -Access to our Professional Trading Desk for advice and free daily research.

 

800-669-5354312-373-5286Series 3 Licensed

John Caruso

Senior Market Strategist
Follow John on Twitter @JCarusoRJO. John began his career at Wilshire Quinn Capital, a Wealth Management Firm based out of Los Angeles, California. Prior to becoming a broker he did some individual trading on his own, where he first began to study and interpret different market strategies and ideas. In 2006 John moved over to Lind-Waldock where he began to service clients as a professional broker. He joined RJO Futures in 2011.
Read More