Bull and Bear Market

Welcome back from the weekend-

Last week was a great week to be long U.S. Treasuries (at both the long and short end of the curve).  Remember when the 10-Yr yield hit 3.25% and the whole CNBC world panicked and sold short U.S. Treasures – we didn’t thankfully. 10-Yr yields fell 11 bps last week to 3.06%.  We do however have a catalyst that could very easily push yields higher/bonds lower in the back end of the week, and that’s wage growth expectations.  While wage growth remains a late cycle indicator and a deterrent of lower bond yields (for the time being), we should continue to see headline inflation slow m/m and y/y via the CPI data.  So we’re trying to balance those two indicators for the time being, and ultimately the cycle will dictate the direction intermediate/longer-term direction – you all know where we stand here. 

Overnight News-

China was down another -2.2% and down -29% from the January peak    
German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced that she will not be seeking any further political offices past 2021. 
Oil -1.15% and not quite to the low end of our range. 
Gold -0.28% – we’ll be looking at entering closer to 1220.00

Price remains bearish trend
Volume increases on down days remains a bearish indicator
Volatility remains north of 20.00 (cash VIX) which is also a bearish indicator

The feds favorite inflation gauge (Core PCE Index) – held flat y/y at 2.0%

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John Caruso

Senior Market Strategist

Follow John on Twitter @JCarusoRJO. John began his career at Wilshire Quinn Capital, a Wealth Management Firm based out of Los Angeles, California. John made his move to the commodity industry at the end of 2005, and began his path at Lind Waldock, at the time the largest retail brokerage division worldwide. John did his undergraduate work at Robert Morris University in Pennsylvania from 1999-2003, where he was a 4 year varsity basketball letterman.  A self-professed “Macro Trader”, John uses a multi-factor fundamental and “quantamental” trading model in distinguishing market cycles based upon the accelerations or decelerations of growth and inflation metrics. His technical and quantitative approach is heavily reliant upon trend and market range analysis via a custom built standard deviation system in helping him make probability-based market decisions. John is an avid reader of all things pertaining to finance, and behavioral economics. Click here to sign-up for John Caruso's Trading Coach Insights. Daily information and insight on all futures marketsin ranging from metals to equities.

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