RJO FuturesCast

Daily Futures Market News, Commentary, & Insight

Where have we been, where are we now, and where are we going?  These are the cycle questions we’re constantly asking ourselves.

Where we WERE: Econ Scenario 4 (Growth slowing, Inflation slowing) in Q3 2019.

Where we ARE currently: Econ Scenario 3 (G Slowing, I accelerating) is where we are now and expect to be through Q1 2020.

Where we’re Going: Econ Scenario 3 thru Q1 2020 (mentioned above) FOLLOWED by Scenario 4 (G Slowing, I slowing) in Q2 2020.

The consumer seems to be the main component holding the entire economy together at the moment (Consumer spending is roughly 70% of the economy, so yeah it’s important).  CAPEX spending decelerated at an alarming pace in last week’s Durable Goods Orders data which slowed to a cycle low of -5.4% – Now riddle me this, what happens if we do see inflation accelerate over the next 2 quarters, with bump in consumer and producer prices? Well household discretionary spending gets eaten up by inflated costs of Oil, Gas, Food, and Materials – basic necessities for everyday American lives.  This could be the final straw that spins the economy into recession. BUT I WANT TO REITERATE THIS NOW – WE STILL DON’T HAVE THE RECESSION CALL ON YET!  The consumer has been the glue holding this entire “thing” together – if the consumer takes a hit, that’s when we think it’s time to put the landing gear down for the US Economy.

Employment Situation –

Jobs: 128K vs 90K Exp BEAT

Rate: 3.6% vs 3.6% Exp UNCH

Wages: 3.0% vs 3.0% y/y UNCH

A successful number on the margin!

If you want to sign up for my proprietary/system based emailed trade signals, reach out to me at jcaruso@rjofutures.com

Feel free to reach out to John Caruso at jcaruso@rjofutures.com or 1-800-669-5354 if you’d like to get a 2 month free trial of our proprietary trade recommendations by email. 

Also, be sure you sign up for our exclusive RJO Futures PRO simulated demo account here.

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800-669-5354312-373-5286Series 3 Licensed

John Caruso

Senior Market Strategist
Follow John on Twitter @JCarusoRJO. John began his career at Wilshire Quinn Capital, a Wealth Management Firm based out of Los Angeles, California. Prior to becoming a broker he did some individual trading on his own, where he first began to study and interpret different market strategies and ideas. In 2006 John moved over to Lind-Waldock where he began to service clients as a professional broker. He joined RJO Futures in 2011.
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