Where have we been, where are we now, and where are we going?  These are the cycle questions we’re constantly asking ourselves.

Where we WERE: Econ Scenario 4 (Growth slowing, Inflation slowing) in Q3 2019.

Where we ARE currently: Econ Scenario 3 (G Slowing, I accelerating) is where we are now and expect to be through Q1 2020.

Where we’re Going: Econ Scenario 3 thru Q1 2020 (mentioned above) FOLLOWED by Scenario 4 (G Slowing, I slowing) in Q2 2020.

The consumer seems to be the main component holding the entire economy together at the moment (Consumer spending is roughly 70% of the economy, so yeah it’s important).  CAPEX spending decelerated at an alarming pace in last week’s Durable Goods Orders data which slowed to a cycle low of -5.4% – Now riddle me this, what happens if we do see inflation accelerate over the next 2 quarters, with bump in consumer and producer prices? Well household discretionary spending gets eaten up by inflated costs of Oil, Gas, Food, and Materials – basic necessities for everyday American lives.  This could be the final straw that spins the economy into recession. BUT I WANT TO REITERATE THIS NOW – WE STILL DON’T HAVE THE RECESSION CALL ON YET!  The consumer has been the glue holding this entire “thing” together – if the consumer takes a hit, that’s when we think it’s time to put the landing gear down for the US Economy.

Employment Situation –

Jobs: 128K vs 90K Exp BEAT

Rate: 3.6% vs 3.6% Exp UNCH

Wages: 3.0% vs 3.0% y/y UNCH

A successful number on the margin!

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800-669-5354312-373-5286Series 3 Licensed

John Caruso

Senior Market Strategist

Follow John on Twitter @JCarusoRJO. John began his career at Wilshire Quinn Capital, a Wealth Management Firm based out of Los Angeles, California. John made his move to the commodity industry at the end of 2005, and began his path at Lind Waldock, at the time the largest retail brokerage division worldwide. John did his undergraduate work at Robert Morris University in Pennsylvania from 1999-2003, where he was a 4 year varsity basketball letterman.  A self-professed “Macro Trader”, John uses a multi-factor fundamental and “quantamental” trading model in distinguishing market cycles based upon the accelerations or decelerations of growth and inflation metrics. His technical and quantitative approach is heavily reliant upon trend and market range analysis via a custom built standard deviation system in helping him make probability-based market decisions. John is an avid reader of all things pertaining to finance, and behavioral economics. Click here to sign-up for John Caruso's Trading Coach Insights. Daily information and insight on all futures marketsin ranging from metals to equities.

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