RJO FuturesCast

Daily Futures Market News, Commentary, & Insight

A massive rally yesterday in US Value with the Russell 2000 gaining +2.3%.  Now signaling immediate OB, but on the brink of eclipsing a new ATH.  We did catch it with some of our core longs, but it’s my fault we didn’t catch it “bigger”.  We’ll likely have another look in coming weeks we think from more favorable levels – or maybe not, we’ll see.  The SP500 also closed at a new ATH which I believe is its 60th All-time CLOSING High of the year.  Earnings remain solid, despite the disappointments from Apple, Facebook, and Amazon.  Aggregate SPY Sales growth +17.69%, and EPS growth +38% with more than half of the Index having reported. 

*ISM MFG PMI slowed yesterday m/m but rose y/y to 60.8. 

Today marks the beginning of the FOMCs 2 day policy meeting.  I think by now we all know what’s coming, and to be honest, it’s overdue and much ado about nothing if you ask me. 

*Copper catching a slight bid here, with the LME stocks reporting another decline in inventories. 

*Oil- can’t stop, won’t stop.  Lower high in the range, could mean a quick but shallow correction, but you certainly don’t play for one.  Path of least resistance remains UP, and every break in the market has been a buying opportunity. 

*USD/Gold – just a lot of chop in these 2 markets with no real sense of direction.  I will certainly welcome another SELL opportunity in Gold if presented with one.  Gold doesn’t look to be ready to move into a favorable period until out into next year/and may likely coincide with a cool down period in US Rates/a stronger USD as we head into very difficult y/y comparisons for macro data and corporate earnings in Q2/Q3 2022.

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John Caruso

Senior Market Strategist
Follow John on Twitter @JCarusoRJO. John began his career at Wilshire Quinn Capital, a Wealth Management Firm based out of Los Angeles, California. John made his move to the commodity industry at the end of 2005, and began his path at Lind Waldock, at the time the largest retail brokerage division worldwide. John did his undergraduate work at Robert Morris University in Pennsylvania from 1999-2003, where he was a 4 year varsity basketball letterman.  A self-professed “Macro Trader”, John uses a multi-factor fundamental and “quantamental” trading model in distinguishing market cycles based upon the accelerations or decelerations of growth and inflation metrics. His technical and quantitative approach is heavily reliant upon trend and market range analysis via a custom built standard deviation system in helping him make probability-based market decisions. John is an avid reader of all things pertaining to finance, and behavioral economics. Click here to sign-up for John Caruso's Trading Coach Insights. Daily information and insight on all futures marketsin ranging from metals to equities.
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