Economy

Futures Market Look Back w/John Caruso – 10/29/2020

Posted 10/29/2020 2:17PM CTJohn Caruso

SP500: +1.82% to 3322.00 (2pm CST)

Technical Outlook: Long Term (2yrs) Trend is Bullish, Intermediate (6 month) Trend is Neutral, Near-term (3 weeks) is Bearish
-A large top, perhaps a “double top” has formed.  Potential for much larger declines to come into year-end/early 2021. 
-Momentum has broken negative
-Potential to revisit 3400, while holding negative momentum – would likely be a gift for short sellers.
-Rallies should struggle to hold. 
-3200 looks like hard deck support, followed by 3165.00
-20% correction would represent a downside target of 2870.00. 

Gold: -0.49% to 1870.00 (2pm CST)

Technical Outlook: 2yr Trend remains Bullish, 6 month trend remains Bullish, 3 week trend is Bearish

Momentum is negative, but now immediate oversold.  Look for Gold to hold negative momentum even if it bounces back to 1900.00 oz. 1890-1900 would likely be a selling opportunity. Break of 1874 was a tipping point for near-term trend and momentum.  1856 is hard deck support, a break of this level could take Gold prices back into the 17 handle – 1776.00 target for a longer-term buying opportunity if fundamentals remain supportive. 

Disclosure: we signaled a long side, near-term trade today at 1870.00 for a chance at 1885.00-1892.00 target zone.

Silver: +0.30 to 23.41 (2pm CST)

Technical Outlook:  2yr Trend: Bullish, 6 Month: Trend Bullish, 3 week: Trend Bearish
-Similar to Gold, momentum is now negative. 
-If we bounce, it’d be a high probability short bet. 
-A break of 21.70 would be bad and could revisit 19.66.00 oz

Bitcoin: +3.07% to 13,575 (2pm CST)

Technical Outlook: 2yr Bullish, 6 month Bullish, 3 week Bullish
-upgraded chart, beginning to outperform across all asset classes
-Bullish momentum on weekly and daily time frames
-Not signaling OB on the daily
-Looking for break through 13,939 – followed by perhaps a small correction phase

Oil: -1.13% to 36.26 (2pm CST)

Technical Outlook: 2yr Bearish, 6 month Neutral/Bearish, 3 week Bearish
-Break below 36.60 is a bad look
-Negative momentum, immediate oversold condition
-Failure to recapture 40.00 has tipped the chart Bearish
-Rallies into the sell zone 38.50-40.00 would be high probability bets on short side
-OPEC is an outlier, likely will extend production cuts, and news of a vaccine by year-end would be a positive development for oil demand

Dollar: +0.59% to 93.95 (2pm CST)

Technical Outlook: 2yr bearish, 6 month bearish, 3 week neutral
-immediate overbought today vs major foreign currencies
-a break of 94.74 would be significant in changing our outlook over the intermediate term
-a short sided trade set up is likely coming in the next day or 2
-we remain bearish of the USD

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John Caruso

Senior Market Strategist
Follow John on Twitter @JCarusoRJO. John began his career at Wilshire Quinn Capital, a Wealth Management Firm based out of Los Angeles, California. John made his move to the commodity industry at the end of 2005, and began his path at Lind Waldock, at the time the largest retail brokerage division worldwide. John did his undergraduate work at Robert Morris University in Pennsylvania from 1999-2003, where he was a 4 year varsity basketball letterman.  A self-professed “Macro Trader”, John uses a multi-factor fundamental and “quantamental” trading model in distinguishing market cycles based upon the accelerations or decelerations of growth and inflation metrics. His technical and quantitative approach is heavily reliant upon trend and market range analysis via a custom built standard deviation system in helping him make probability-based market decisions. John is an avid reader of all things pertaining to finance, and behavioral economics. Click here to sign-up for John Caruso's Trading Coach Insights. Daily information and insight on all futures marketsin ranging from metals to equities.
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