This is a little bit of a shock…March CPI 1.4% y/y vs 1.5% and +0.3 vs +0.4 m/m – interesting, and likely an outlier in terms of inflation expectations actually going DOWN.  Insert the *skeptical face with monocle* emoji.  This is fake news ladies and gentleman. The accelerated moves in commodities particularly over the past 3-4 months does not line up with the reported data.  Hmm.  I’m going to have to do a deeper dive on this data point.   All in all this is a good thing…if they want to drive yields lower/bonds higher again, we’ll sell right into them! 

Stocks clawing to new ATHs overnight, and still punching higher pre-market.  IVOLs are definitely coming in

10yr yields @ 1.15% with immediate upside to 1.22% and 1.08% – no change on our call here, as a matter of fact, bonds may be giving us another opportunity to re-gross our position UP to full size in coming day’s/weeks. 

Metals- particularly Platinum +5.64% overnight to a new multi-year high of 1263 oz!  Gold +1.0%, Copper +1.88%, Silver +0.56%

Fed Chair Powell speaks today at 2pm EST

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John Caruso

Senior Market Strategist
Follow John on Twitter @JCarusoRJO. John began his career at Wilshire Quinn Capital, a Wealth Management Firm based out of Los Angeles, California. John made his move to the commodity industry at the end of 2005, and began his path at Lind Waldock, at the time the largest retail brokerage division worldwide. John did his undergraduate work at Robert Morris University in Pennsylvania from 1999-2003, where he was a 4 year varsity basketball letterman.  A self-professed “Macro Trader”, John uses a multi-factor fundamental and “quantamental” trading model in distinguishing market cycles based upon the accelerations or decelerations of growth and inflation metrics. His technical and quantitative approach is heavily reliant upon trend and market range analysis via a custom built standard deviation system in helping him make probability-based market decisions. John is an avid reader of all things pertaining to finance, and behavioral economics. Click here to sign-up for John Caruso's Trading Coach Insights. Daily information and insight on all futures marketsin ranging from metals to equities.
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