Economy

Futures Market Outlook w/John Caruso – 03/12/2021

Posted 03/12/2021 8:40AM CTJohn Caruso

Good morning,

2 important macro shifts I’m seeing this morning:

The US Dollar is capturing my attention here – we’ve seen consecutive day’s of higher lows in our range, and it’s momentum signal has shifted to positive. If we’re embarking on shift in macro markets, the dollar is one of the first places you’ll begin to see it.  91.05 to 92.41 is our range to manage. If we’re seeing a shift/transition from weak to a firm(er) dollar, this will likely create lower highs in many commodities that we’ve going forward. 

NASDAQ- its as clear as day the tech stocks are falling out favor…. the NQ -1.50% vs RTY UNCH and SPY -0.38%. The tech sector’s IVOL has been signaling a transition from multiple weeks of carrying premiums to now threatening a series of discounts. XLK -10% and QQQ -10% IVOL discounts. Big tech were the “pandemic/stay at home stocks” last year and are carrying some very difficult y/y comps for revenues and eps. 

That’s all for now…

Good luck,

800-669-5354312-373-5286Series 3 Licensed

John Caruso

Senior Market Strategist
Follow John on Twitter @JCarusoRJO. John began his career at Wilshire Quinn Capital, a Wealth Management Firm based out of Los Angeles, California. John made his move to the commodity industry at the end of 2005, and began his path at Lind Waldock, at the time the largest retail brokerage division worldwide. John did his undergraduate work at Robert Morris University in Pennsylvania from 1999-2003, where he was a 4 year varsity basketball letterman.  A self-professed “Macro Trader”, John uses a multi-factor fundamental and “quantamental” trading model in distinguishing market cycles based upon the accelerations or decelerations of growth and inflation metrics. His technical and quantitative approach is heavily reliant upon trend and market range analysis via a custom built standard deviation system in helping him make probability-based market decisions. John is an avid reader of all things pertaining to finance, and behavioral economics. Click here to sign-up for John Caruso's Trading Coach Insights. Daily information and insight on all futures marketsin ranging from metals to equities.
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