Economy

Futures Market Outlook w/John Caruso – 10/13/2020

Posted 10/13/2020 8:10AM CTJohn Caruso

Europe- They’re a mess right now. Unemployment levels are rising across the Euro Zone as Government subsidies and stimulus wane and a second wave of virus infections manifest across the region.  UK Employment levels fell by the most in 11yrs as PM Boris Johnson begins to implement rolling shutdowns. The GER ZEW Business Sentiment Index fell to its lowest levels since May. More “stimmies” likely on the way from the ECB and Christine Lagarde.  We remain near-term BEARISH on Europe and the EUR/USD in Q4. 

NASDAQ- Low volume, and another Gamma squeeze was reminiscent of late Aug/early September. A few things contributing to the move, 1. Option dealer’s caught offsides on short out of the money call options on big tech names were forced to chase/buy futures/options contracts in an effort to stay neutral/hedged, 2. A heavy short retail position according to the CFTC Commitment of Traders report last week, 3. Low volume days (such as yesterday) make the market tape quite susceptible to big price moves.  Also, reminiscent of late Aug, was the VXN (NASDAQ Volatility Index) was +6.00% yesterday – typically volatility moves counter to the index price. 

Commodities- have kind of floundered since the start of Q4.  Following the big “reflation” trade from June to September, the CRB Index has just chopped sideways and looks like it could roll over in Q4.  Other than our long dollar in Q4 call, we haven’t shorted too many commodities, and we may not. We do see another reflation/inflation trade coming out into the first half of 2021.  But, it’s Q4 2020 so we’re just going to keep 1H 2021 right there, in 2021.

Other notable moves overnight:

Global Equities:
SPY -0.12%, NQ +0.79%, RTY -0.81%

GER -0.66%, UK -0.10%, FRA -0.37%

Shanghai +0.04%, KOSPI -0.02%

Copper -0.39%

Oil +2.23%

10yr UNCH at 77bps – totally unphased by this recent move in Nasdaq

Gold -0.16%

Silver -0.76%

USD +0.14%

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John Caruso

Senior Market Strategist
Follow John on Twitter @JCarusoRJO. John began his career at Wilshire Quinn Capital, a Wealth Management Firm based out of Los Angeles, California. John made his move to the commodity industry at the end of 2005, and began his path at Lind Waldock, at the time the largest retail brokerage division worldwide. John did his undergraduate work at Robert Morris University in Pennsylvania from 1999-2003, where he was a 4 year varsity basketball letterman.  A self-professed “Macro Trader”, John uses a multi-factor fundamental and “quantamental” trading model in distinguishing market cycles based upon the accelerations or decelerations of growth and inflation metrics. His technical and quantitative approach is heavily reliant upon trend and market range analysis via a custom built standard deviation system in helping him make probability-based market decisions. John is an avid reader of all things pertaining to finance, and behavioral economics. Click here to sign-up for John Caruso's Trading Coach Insights. Daily information and insight on all futures marketsin ranging from metals to equities.
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