RJO FuturesCast

Daily Futures Market News, Commentary, & Insight

Aside from the Aussie dollar seemingly sitting on a 2+ year long bull trend support line, we believe any negative economic news out of Australia has likely been priced into the market.  On top of this, the Reserve Bank of Australia may be set to raise interest rates at the August meeting based on the observation by the RBA that the “rate of wage growth appears to have troughed”.  The RBA has tied its inflation forecasts very tightly to the rate of change in jobs growth and wage growth, and with the aforementioned statement regarding wages, we believe a rate hike will happen sometime in the back half of 2018.  On the other side of the trade is the US dollar, which has been trapped in a bearish to sideways trend in recent months.  As always, we’ll continue to monitor Australian inflation and jobs data in coming weeks and months as they still may not be entirely out of the woods, but I will say my interest is piqued in the Aussie Dollar. 

Australian Dollar Weekly Chart

Australian Dollar Weekly Chart

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John Caruso

Senior Market Strategist
Follow John on Twitter @JCarusoRJO. John began his career at Wilshire Quinn Capital, a Wealth Management Firm based out of Los Angeles, California. John made his move to the commodity industry at the end of 2005, and began his path at Lind Waldock, at the time the largest retail brokerage division worldwide. John did his undergraduate work at Robert Morris University in Pennsylvania from 1999-2003, where he was a 4 year varsity basketball letterman.  A self-professed “Macro Trader”, John uses a multi-factor fundamental and “quantamental” trading model in distinguishing market cycles based upon the accelerations or decelerations of growth and inflation metrics. His technical and quantitative approach is heavily reliant upon trend and market range analysis via a custom built standard deviation system in helping him make probability-based market decisions. John is an avid reader of all things pertaining to finance, and behavioral economics. Click here to sign-up for John Caruso's Trading Coach Insights. Daily information and insight on all futures marketsin ranging from metals to equities.
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