Economy

Jobless Claims Skyrocket to 4-Year High

Posted 03/20/2020 9:28AM CTJohn Caruso

Shots fired yesterday in the jobless market. U.S. jobless claims rose 70K to a 4yr high of 281K.  This data could grow 10/20 fold in oncoming weeks and that’s not an exaggeration. Be engaged with our ranges, because bounces in stocks/commodities that are listed as “bearish trend” are likely to fail and be shorting opportunities.  However, we do think energy is buyable in this environment from the low end of the range (yes we know its bearish trend), BUT we definitely see swing trading opportunities in crude from the these multi DECADE levels. 

Stocks- Look for possible sell opportunities off bounces, preferably at the top of the range. VIX has come off the highs to 68.00 and yields are backing off again this morning.  This could give stocks a few days of “bounce” , but they will likely be opportunities to catch the next leg lower.

Oil- we said it up top, good swing trade opportunities from multi-decade lows.  Manage the range and keep an ear the ground for rumblings out of OPEC

Metals- I do think there could potentially be another wave of selling that hits the metals – but we think it’ll likely be the LAST.  Tremendous upside in metals, but may shake out one more time.  Dollar devaluation is likely at some point as markets quell the fear and attempt to recover – this is your gold/silver catalyst to watch for.  1400-1558 Gold and 11.53-14.07 in Silver

E-mini S&P 500 Jun ’20 Daily Chart
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John Caruso

Senior Market Strategist
Follow John on Twitter @JCarusoRJO. John began his career at Wilshire Quinn Capital, a Wealth Management Firm based out of Los Angeles, California. John made his move to the commodity industry at the end of 2005, and began his path at Lind Waldock, at the time the largest retail brokerage division worldwide. John did his undergraduate work at Robert Morris University in Pennsylvania from 1999-2003, where he was a 4 year varsity basketball letterman.  A self-professed “Macro Trader”, John uses a multi-factor fundamental and “quantamental” trading model in distinguishing market cycles based upon the accelerations or decelerations of growth and inflation metrics. His technical and quantitative approach is heavily reliant upon trend and market range analysis via a custom built standard deviation system in helping him make probability-based market decisions. John is an avid reader of all things pertaining to finance, and behavioral economics. Click here to sign-up for John Caruso's Trading Coach Insights. Daily information and insight on all futures marketsin ranging from metals to equities.
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