RJO FuturesCast

Daily Futures Market News, Commentary, & Insight

The March British pound was a big mover in the currency space this week. It currently sits at +220 pts since the start of January, and showing some good bottoming action on the charts. Plenty of news surrounding a Brexit deal this week, with the proposed plan being rejected by an extreme margin in British Parliament, prompting a non-confidence vote against May. She did in fact survive the “no confidence” vote, which would’ve have prompted a general election and caused even more uncertainty and disfunction within the British Government. Despite the drama within British Parliament, it does in fact appear that the majority are in favor of striking a deal ahead of the March deadline. This is likely what spurred a rally this week in the British Pound. The British pound has been largely held underwater for the past 2 years from what seems to be a never ending drama story surrounding Great Britain’s exit from the EU. With Brexit in the rear-view mirror no later than February, coupled with our “bearish” outlook on the USD, we believe all can breath a sigh of relief and give way to a stronger British Pound in coming months. Upside target in the near-term is 1.3300 with longer-term to 1.3800.

British Pound Weekly Chart

British Pound Weekly Chart

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John Caruso

Senior Market Strategist
Follow John on Twitter @JCarusoRJO. John began his career at Wilshire Quinn Capital, a Wealth Management Firm based out of Los Angeles, California. John made his move to the commodity industry at the end of 2005, and began his path at Lind Waldock, at the time the largest retail brokerage division worldwide. John did his undergraduate work at Robert Morris University in Pennsylvania from 1999-2003, where he was a 4 year varsity basketball letterman.  A self-professed “Macro Trader”, John uses a multi-factor fundamental and “quantamental” trading model in distinguishing market cycles based upon the accelerations or decelerations of growth and inflation metrics. His technical and quantitative approach is heavily reliant upon trend and market range analysis via a custom built standard deviation system in helping him make probability-based market decisions. John is an avid reader of all things pertaining to finance, and behavioral economics. Click here to sign-up for John Caruso's Trading Coach Insights. Daily information and insight on all futures marketsin ranging from metals to equities.
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