February natural gas is trading lower today near a previous gap between 3.325 and 3.157. The market may be providing underlying support from a four rig decline in drilling last week, however, the longer term weather outlook appears to be warming with some isolated cold in the Midwest toward the end of the week. These below average temperatures appear to be concentrated within the upper Great Lakes. Last week’s inventory report showed inventories fell for the sixth consecutive week below the five-year average. Total inventories stand at 2533 bcf, which is 11% below the five-year average and 3% below last year’s levels. Reports of weakening Chinese gas imports/exports as well as concerns over global growth favor the downside. With the market currently down over 8% on the day, the next level of support for Feb natural gas comes in at 3.076.

Natural Gas Feb ’19 Daily Chart

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