Coffee is coming off contract lows with the risk off sentiment among emerging market currencies weighing down on prices. Close to record high production in Brazil and Vietnam has been a significant factor in this 21-month downtrend. Near-term supply concerns are observed in Colombia, Indonesia and India. Recovery in emerging market currencies has provided some support in the near-term.  Technically, the market is heavily oversold, however, with a record net short position and any bullish supply/demand news may provide a short covering bounce. There is still no bottoming in coffee with prices vulnerable to a test of the November 2013 low of 100.95. Resistance comes in around 107.70 with support around 104.80.

Coffee Sep ’18 Daily Chart

Coffee Sep '18 Daily Chart

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Alex Turro

Senior Market Strategist

Alex began his career with an IB at the Chicago Board of Trade after graduating with a BA/BS from Indiana University. He then went on to work for a proprietary trading software company before joining RJO Futures as a Market Strategist.

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