Oil prices have been ticking higher since Wednesday’s losses but have yet to fully recover as a build in weekly gasoline inventories only added further concern to the recovery outlook for fuel demand as corona cases continue to surge. US gasoline stocks rose 1.9 million barrels with the expectation of a 1.8-million-barrel decline, according to the EIA. This has been coupled with a potential new (second) wave of cases that is only continuing to cripple the already faltering demand outlook. Regarding supply, Libyan exports have been continuing to increase with production already recovering to nearly 500k barrels a day with the expectation of those production totals doubling by year end. Some support may have been garnered with reports that Chinese September oil imports rose 17.6% over year ago levels as well as a downward revision in Russian oil output for 2020. Oil volatility (OVX) is starting to signal a lower high with the market teetering the near-term bull/bear line of 40.38 and has transitioned to neutral trend with today’s range seen between 39.35 – 42.14.

Crude Oil Dec ’20 Daily Chart
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Alex Turro

Senior Market Strategist

Alex began his career with an IB at the Chicago Board of Trade after graduating with a BA/BS from Indiana University. He then went on to work for a proprietary trading software company before joining RJO Futures as a Market Strategist.

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