RJO FuturesCast

Daily Futures Market News, Commentary, & Insight

Inflation has carried commodities higher over the past 2 years and has intensified since the Russia/Ukraine conflict. In my opinion inflation is here to stay for the foreseeable future. Low interest rates are a thing of the past and if its anything like the 1970’s we will see multi month rallies starting from already elevated prices of single commodities rather than the whole of commodities markets.  Inflated prices spurred by an economic bull whip effect or tightening supply coming from geopolitical reasons or countries trying to tame domestic inflation by slowing exports of commodities. Keep in mind, close to 15% of Platinum supply is from Russia and since sanctions on Russia the market has found support above $800. This elevated price is still at the lower bound when you consider that platinum traded up to $2308 in November of ’07. Today roughly 45% of Platinum demand comes from the auto industry. The usage for Platinum is expected to rapidly change from catalytic converters to hydrogen fuel cell technology. When Covid shut down auto production slumped, and Platinum held relatively well. Chip shortages emerged as the major cause for the lack of demand. Today’s view is auto and heavy machinery production should jump with the recent CHIPS act and the turn over into the newest fuel cell technology.  

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Daniel Pavilonis

Senior Market Strategist
Daniel started his career as a broker with Lind-Waldock in 2007. He is well diversified in the markets with the indexes and currencies being his favorites. Daniel can often be found quoted in industry sources, such as Bloomberg, Dow Jones Newswires, WSJ and Futures magazine.
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