March soybeans have started the day trading as high as 916^6 off news of U.S./China trade progress headlines. Thursday morning, we saw reports of China proposing an additional $30B in ag products from the U.S. as well as both parties looking for shorter term measures. Tuesday and Wednesday, we saw the market trade down to support at 893-894 before closing up off the lows both days. Today’s move puts soybeans back in the wedge pattern we had seen for the past couple months. Even with today’s move higher, fundamentals are still bearish. If we see soybean acres in line with average estimates of 86.1 million acres we could see another record high ending stocks number. South America’s production also remains strong which adds to the bearish pressure. Support comes in at 904^5 with resistance at the upper trendline around 919. Trade breaking 894^5 would continue the trend to the downside with 880 being the next support level. Positive news on U.S./China trade supports the market but soybeans have bearish fundamentals that still are providing pressure.
Soybeans Mar ’19 Daily Chart