The September S&P futures have printed another all-time high this morning.  A week after the Fed put the rally on pause by expressing some concern about the rate of inflation, optimism about the reopening and hope that a bipartisan infrastructure bill may actually get done has us trending higher yet again.  The Dow, Nasdaq, and Russell failed to print new all-time highs so far, but the Russell and Nasdaq are not terribly far off. 

Confirming Fed Chair Powell’s inflationary concerns, this morning’s PCE reading (Fed’s preferred measure of inflation) went up another .4% in May.  That means that the price of goods has gone up 3.9% over the past year.  The Fed expects these numbers will start to cool off as the economy normalizes and the labor shortage resolves itself.  Anyone who has filled up their tank, visited the grocery store, looked for a house or car, etc. recently can only hope that he’ll be right about this all being “transitory.” 

Next week’s news slate is a strong one.  Traders will be most focused on next Friday’s jobs data.  Powell has stood firm that he won’t consider tapering until we reach full employment, and the last few jobs numbers have been underwhelming at best.  We’ll see if we can finally start to turn the corner, but I don’t expect that to happen until we see greater expiration of benefits.  Have a great weekend. 

E-mini S&P 500 Sep ’21 Daily Chart
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Bill Dixon

Senior Market Strategist
Bill began his career working with a firm of technical commodity traders specializing in the treasury and metal markets. In 2006 he moved over to Lind-Waldock as a broker. Bill joined RJO Futures in 2011.
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