RJO FuturesCast

Daily Futures Market News, Commentary, & Insight

Indices appeared poised to finish of the week in positive territory yesterday afternoon. That is all in jeopardy this morning as selling has dominated the early going. The four major indices are off anywhere from 0.4-0.8%.  September futures are coming off the board this morning, and an estimated $3.4 Trillion in options are set to mature (With a September record of approximately $740 billion in individual names). Consensus is now bearish, and people are paying large premiums to hedge as indicated by the large increases in implied volatility premiums. This can be viewed as an indication that people are willing to pay up for protection, because they fell the next big selloff is coming. The market has a funny way of pleasing the least amount of people, but perhaps they’ll be right. Since the Covid bottom last March, any and all multi-day selloffs have been buying opportunities.  Surely that will stop working at some point, but I just don’t think it is broken yet. Perhaps that changes next week with the Fed. If so, a lot of people will finally be happy to have had their downside hedges in place.   

E-mini S&P 500 Sep ’21 Daily Chart
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Bill Dixon

Senior Market Strategist
Bill began his career working with a firm of technical commodity traders specializing in the treasury and metal markets. In 2006 he moved over to Lind-Waldock as a broker. Bill joined RJO Futures in 2011.
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