RJO FuturesCast

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Interest Rates

The Bond Bulls Have the Headlines on Their Side

Posted 07/25/2019 6:08PM CT | Bob Haberkorn

September bonds sit right on multi week highs this morning and we expect that bullish bias is mainly the result of expectations for dovish news from the ECB meeting that is underway as of this writing.  However, what traders expect could be ahead of reality, as expectations for the next ECB cut were set for a September and market talk this morning has suggested the potential for a move today.  The ECB has some added incentive to act now as it appears that the UK is going to exit with or without a deal. In other words, the ECB might want to take out insurance like the U.S. fed against the potential for a negative political/economic event in October.  However, there were predictions of an earlier than expected Bank of Australia rate cut and bank of Japan is supposedly considering a cut next week.

Ongoing Jobless claims are expected to have minimal weekly increase from the previous 1.686 million reading. June wholesale inventories look to hold steady with May’s .4% reading. Resistance is this week’s high at 155-11 in September with support coming in at 154-24 today.

30-Yr Bond Sep ’19 Daily Chart
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Bob Haberkorn

Senior Market Strategist
Follow Bob on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/Bob_Haberkorn" target="_blank">@Bob_Haberkorn</a>.</p><p>Bob started his career in 2005 as a broker with Lind-Waldock. He is often quoted in industry sources, such as the Wall Street Journal in regards to precious metals and the copper market.
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