Stocks- Since the beginning half of June the Russell 2000 (small caps) has pared back 10% of its more than 40% gains from the March 2020 lows. What’s most disconcerting to me (and should be for you as well) is that Russell never regained its 6-month bullish trend in the time of that historic rally. Yes we were bullish “trade” – meaning 3 weeks+, but all the while remained bearish “trend” – 6 months +. In its simplest form, what I’m trying to convey is the dominant trend remained and is still bearish. With the recent breakdown in the trade, and dominant trend remaining bearish in the Russell 2000 – we think the odds are rising that the market crashes for the 2nd time in 2020. Side note: Covid – 19 cases are at record highs here in the U.S.
Volatility- True bull markets in U.S. Stocks don’t exist with the VIX trading > 30.00.
Gold- High conviction long when we see pull-backs to the low end of our range (1735 – 1745). We’re embarking on the next rising phase in Gold very soon. 1835 upside target.
Currencies: Dollar bouncing today, we’ll be ready for the next position on the sell side, but not yet. It may stay range bound before a big break down later in the summer – we’re estimating a breakdown to at least 88.00 and perhaps worse as the Federal Reserve devalues the purchasing power of America.
