RJO FuturesCast

Daily Futures Market News, Commentary, & Insight

Agricultural

Time to Focus on North American Crops

Posted 04/24/2018 11:20AM CT | Frank J. Cholly

While we have seen a steady demand for soybeans and soymeal we must not lose sight of the fact that we have had a record supply and we are very likely to build on that with yet another record supply to follow this season. I expect that soybean acres will be added in upcoming USDA reports. We also know that demand is shifting to South America as it does every year at this time. However, this year we are trying to price in the effects of a trade war with China, our biggest purchaser of US soybeans. China could drive soy prices lower. 

Planting

Soybean prices have been surprisingly strong, all things considered. Producers should be happy locking in these levels! Bean prices could return to $9.70 range, and that’s conservative in my opinion.

Corn is a different story, in my opinion at least. Our corn prices are competitive. Corn prices have been under pressure for years now as the market has tried to balance out the supply and demand. We’re there now! Demand is likely to outstrip current supplies, and this year’s plantings are off to a slow start. I would be surprised if the USDA doesn’t end up lowering corn acres in future reports. I could easily see corn prices reaching $4.50 and quite possibly even $5.00 if weather becomes more of an issue during pollination.

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Frank J. Cholly

Senior Market Strategist
Frank brings his clients more than twenty-six years of commodity futures experience. He was a member at the Chicago Board of Trade for 10 years where he filled orders in the grain and financial pits. Frank was also a Lind-Waldock's floor manager for ten years and later joined on as a commodities broker.
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