Economy

Today’s Market Headlines:

Posted 08/23/2022 3:42PM CTJohn Caruso

**EUR MFG PMI 49.7 vs 49.8 prior

**EUR Services PMI 50.2 vs 51.2 prior

**UK MFG PMI 46.0 vs 52.1 Prior

**UK Services PMI 52.5 vs 52.6 prior

**USA MFG PMI 51.3 vs 52.2 prior

**USA Services PMI 44.1 vs 47.3 prior

**USA New Home Sales 511K vs 585K

**ECBs Panetta: The probability of a recession is increasing

**ECBs Panetta: We may need to adjust the stance of monetary policy further

**Freeport LNG Development: Initial production is expected to begin in early to mid-November, with a sustained level of at least 2 BCF per day by end of November

Stocks:  Neutral/Bearish – a relatively benign session following back to back >2.0% declines between Friday and Monday.  A hawkish Fed at the Jackson Hole meeting is in the process of being priced in.  

Bond Yields: Neutral Trend – Initially rose to 3.07% in the 10yr, before falling back to 3.00% before gaining back to 3.05% into the close.  The 10yr yield remains immediate OB, and is likely pricing in a “Hawkish” Fed at Jackson Hole later this week.

Gold:  Neutral Trend –  we contend that a bottom is due to form soon.  Gold initially fell to 1743 oz, before recovering to 1767  , finishing at 1759.  Gold remains a long side allocation with us at the moment.  

Oil:  Bearish Trend – another strong day building on comments from OPEC+ yesterday.  95.05 remains a key pivot point for Oil prices that could open up 101.88, failure to break 95.05 could reset prices back to new YTD lows.  Oil finished 93.70 approx. on the Oct contract.  Oil inventories due up tomorrow, with its sights on that key 95.05 level.  

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John Caruso

Senior Market Strategist
Follow John on Twitter @JCarusoRJO. John began his career at Wilshire Quinn Capital, a Wealth Management Firm based out of Los Angeles, California. John made his move to the commodity industry at the end of 2005, and began his path at Lind Waldock, at the time the largest retail brokerage division worldwide. John did his undergraduate work at Robert Morris University in Pennsylvania from 1999-2003, where he was a 4 year varsity basketball letterman.  A self-professed “Macro Trader”, John uses a multi-factor fundamental and “quantamental” trading model in distinguishing market cycles based upon the accelerations or decelerations of growth and inflation metrics. His technical and quantitative approach is heavily reliant upon trend and market range analysis via a custom built standard deviation system in helping him make probability-based market decisions. John is an avid reader of all things pertaining to finance, and behavioral economics. Click here to sign-up for John Caruso's Trading Coach Insights. Daily information and insight on all futures marketsin ranging from metals to equities.
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