RJO FuturesCast

Daily Futures Market News, Commentary, & Insight

Interest Rates

U.S. Treasury Prices to Move Higher

Posted 04/04/2019 12:01PM CT | Alexander Turro

U.S. government bond prices are oscillating between gains and losses but are holding firm after forming a quasi-double bottom in the early session. This comes amidst an initial jobless claims report that fell to the lowest level in fifty years, as well as overnight reports of German manufacturing goods falling 4.2% in February, only further exacerbating European growth concerns. The focus will remain on Friday’s jobs report, as well as average hourly earnings, especially after only 20k jobs were added in February. If late cycle wage inflation continues to accelerate and global and domestic growth decelerate then you will a see a rotation into domestic stagflationary conditions, which will impact peak corporate profitability moving forward. The benchmark 10-yr note remains bearish trend with the current range seen between 2.33 – 2.54%. Initial support for the June bonds comes in at 147-10 with the next upside target around 148-01.

30-Yr T Note Jun ’19 Daily Chart

30-Yr T Note Jun '19 Daily Chart

If you would like to learn more about interest rates, please check out our free Interest Rates and the Economy Guide.

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Alexander Turro

Market Strategist
Alex began his career with an IB at the Chicago Board of Trade after graduating with a BA/BS from Indiana University. He then went on to work for a proprietary trading software company before joining RJO Futures as a Market Strategist.
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