RJO FuturesCast

Daily Futures Market News, Commentary, & Insight

Reviewing the past few weeks in the USD vs EUR trade, the action has been undoubtedly bearish.  Recently, within the past three weeks, we’ve seen the positive correlation shared between the USD and US Stocks since late August, reverse.  A string of softer readings in US Durable Goods Orders, and inflation has underpinned the USD as of late.  The market is watching the Senate vote on Tax Reform very closely, and a passing of the Bill could reignite the upside in the near-term.  Furthermore, the FOMCs interest rate hike decision on Dec 12th will also be in focus.  Both Tax Reform and FOMC policy could certainly be near-term catalysts for the bulls, we’re watching the 94.50 area on the charts which likely serve as significant overhead resistance for the bulls, while 92.42 will be key support. 

Japanese Yen remains out of favor this morning, but did see a very healthy technical bounce off of trend support at 87.50 to 90.29, highlighted by us three weeks ago.  A softer reading in Japanese Retail Sales early on this week, and a lack of “safe-haven” demand, keeps the yen on a downward track this morning.  However, we’ll keep a close watch for another test of trend line support at 87.90 and an ear to the ground for fundamental support, as another buying opportunity.  Trend Support comes in at 87.90. 

Japanese Yen Weekly Chart

Japanese Yen Weekly Chart

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John Caruso

Senior Market Strategist
Follow John on Twitter @JCarusoRJO. John began his career at Wilshire Quinn Capital, a Wealth Management Firm based out of Los Angeles, California. John made his move to the commodity industry at the end of 2005, and began his path at Lind Waldock, at the time the largest retail brokerage division worldwide. John did his undergraduate work at Robert Morris University in Pennsylvania from 1999-2003, where he was a 4 year varsity basketball letterman.  A self-professed “Macro Trader”, John uses a multi-factor fundamental and “quantamental” trading model in distinguishing market cycles based upon the accelerations or decelerations of growth and inflation metrics. His technical and quantitative approach is heavily reliant upon trend and market range analysis via a custom built standard deviation system in helping him make probability-based market decisions. John is an avid reader of all things pertaining to finance, and behavioral economics. Click here to sign-up for John Caruso's Trading Coach Insights. Daily information and insight on all futures marketsin ranging from metals to equities.
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