The wheat market traded higher overnight after posting new contract lows for July in Chicago, Kansas City, and Minneapolis to start the week. The wheat market seen a lot of pressure lately finishing down for the month of April on all three contracts. Winter wheat conditions came in at 64% good/excellent which is up from the previous week and up from 33% this time last year. Even with soft red wheat conditions coming in lower in some states, winter wheat conditions are some of the best in the last 20 years. However, spring wheat planting progress came in at 13% complete vs a 10-year average of 33% with North Dakota, Minnesota, and South Dakota being closer to their low year than the 10-year average. Wheat tours in Kansas and Oklahoma are estimating yield at 46.3 bushels and 35.1 bushels respectively. Good weather in the U.S. and many of the world’s key export areas continue to pressure this already oversold market. Momentum studies are extremely oversold but need some bullish fundamental news to reverse the trend lower. Adverse weather in the northern Midwest could cause planting delays that would support spring wheat and a switch in feed use from corn to wheat could support winter wheat.

Wheat Jul ’19 Daily Chart

Spring Wheat Jul ’19 Daily Chart