RJO FuturesCast

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Currencies

Yen Remains as Global Safe Haven Currency

Posted 03/23/2018 8:16AM CT | John Caruso

The Japanese Yen futures traded as high as .009613 (104.63 USD/JPY) in the early hours of 3/23 session, up 7% ytd.  Global equities were shook yesterday by simultaneous rate hikes in the US and China, S&P 500 futures traded down to 2617.00 overnight -2.2% YTD, while Asian equities, Shanghai Index and Jap Nikkei Index, got hit for -3.4% and -4.5% respectively.  While growth and inflation expectations seem to be souring around the globe, currency traders have sought shelter in the Japanese Yen while the dollar remains subdued and locked in a downtrend despite talk of further increases in US interest rates.  Despite it’s value as a safe-haven currency, set backs are certainly warranted from present levels as we triggered an immediate overbought condition this morning.  Furthermore, Japanese CPI (consumer inflation gauge) came in beneath expectations and runs well below the BOJ 2% target – which should grant the bulls an opportunity to book some gains.  On that note, we will look for further buying opportunities in the June Yen on pull backs to low end of its trading range/trendline support along .009500 as well as an ear to the ground in any major monetary policy shifts by the Bank of Japan. 

Recommendations: Stay bullish on the Yen, seek buying opportunities on pullbacks and be cautious heading into the next Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting.

Japanese Yen Jun ’18 Weekly Chart

yen_weekly_chart

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John Caruso

Senior Market Strategist
Follow John on Twitter @JCarusoRJO. John began his career at Wilshire Quinn Capital, a Wealth Management Firm based out of Los Angeles, California. Prior to becoming a broker he did some individual trading on his own, where he first began to study and interpret different market strategies and ideas. In 2006 John moved over to Lind-Waldock where he began to service clients as a professional broker. He joined RJO Futures in 2011.
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