Last week I advised traders on the following “This week is showing us another inside week setup. Traders should watch for a break above $5.49 or a break below $5.23, basically last week’s range.” Sure enough, the market broke through $5.23 and made a weekly low of $5.06 ¾ before reversing. At the time of this writing, December corn is trading around $5.26 ¼ with a weekly high of $5.34. It appears the market still has strong support around the $5.00 area. If we see corn close in the upper 1/3 of the daily trading range we may see some follow through to the upside early next week. The USDA Supply Demand and Crop Production Reports that were released on Tuesday were inside the range of estimates but leaned slightly bearish. I still remain cautiously bullish even with the same pullback we saw this week. In my opinion to really get the bulls excited we would need to see December corn trade up above $5.49.
The “big picture” numbers remain the same and probably will for some time. I firmly believe a break below $4.96 could give the bears control of the market and a break above $6.39 ½ on the upside may have enough bulls behind it to propel corn to all-time highs. There are several minor areas of support and resistance inside this range that can help with short term market direction if violated. Call me directly at 1-800-367-7290 for more in-depth discussion on these numbers and to discuss trading strategies specific to your situation.
I would suggest using an option strategy to manage your futures position risk or an outright option strategy. Implied option volatility has come down quite a bit from its most recent highs mainly due to the consolidation and tighter trading ranges. I have 25 years of grain market experience, feel free to call or email with any questions you may have. Be sure to check out my archived weekly grain market insight articles posted on our website.
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